Saturday, September 1, 2012

Statistics failed me (in a great way)

Best probability exercise EVER!!!

All summer long, our family has been attending the Chick-fil-A Breakfast Rides on Saturday mornings.  We love cycling together.

All summer long, two bikes have been hanging inside the restaurant - one adult size and one child size - donated from local bike shops as drawing prizes for people who attend the rides. 

All summer long, every person who attends the rides and wears a Patriots' Festival/Ride for Heroes t-shirt or jersey (or a firefighter/police/military t-shirt) gets their name entered to win one of those bikes. 

The drawing was today. 

There was literally a 5-gallon bucket of little entry strips for the adults and a big canvas bag for the kid entries.  Out of a typical Saturday ride, I would estimate there were about 60 adults (sometimes more) and about 8-10 kids. 

Lashi and I were 2 of those 60+ adults.

Our children were 5 of those 8-10 kids. 

Statistics would say that we stood approximately a snowball's chance in hell to win the adult bike.

Statistics would say we were a shoo-in for the kid bike. 

Statistics would be wrong.

A sweet young lady whose family we have come to love won the kid's bike (which is very little and very green and very likely that she will be trading it for something more her speed).  Congrats to her!  Nevertheless, we were surprised.  We had well over 50% of the entries in that bag.  Lashi estimates it was more like 80%. 

Then came the bigger surprise.  I won the adult bike!  As shocking as that was, it was a very good thing.  My "old faithful" purple pawn shop bike from 10 years ago has been chugging and coughing this year.  It was particularly obnoxious the last month, even AFTER getting worked on.  Most adults we spoke to at the rides said they would be selling or gifting the bike if they won it - they already have something very nice that they want to use.  For me, it was a huge blessing.  I was worried about next week's 15 miles on my fickle gears. 



So, statistics were wrong, I am happy, and now I'm going to deck out that bike with my patriotic decorations for the Patriots' Festival at Mountain Shadows Park/Chipeta Elementary next week. 

http://www.patriotsfestival.com/

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